Or rates could hold steady, in which case you've got a week. Or rates could waver up and down with 3.25% being at the high end, in which case you've got longer. So let's not give up yet please!
There's a difference between giving up and making realistic preparations! The rate will continue to go up (on average) until there is sufficiently increased testing and/or restrictions. Public health scientists have been saying the same thing since mid August.
@anonymous The rate will not necessarily continue to go up on average. There is a phenomenon called "reversion to the mean" which means that if the steady-state rate is, say 2% and you see a day with 3.25% then you can reasonably expect the next day's rate to be lower, thus reverting to the mean.
this is glittery unicorn thinking :) With kids and teachers returning to school en masse, the expectation is that the rate will go up. There is no "steady state" or mean to which we can revert because we're setting a new normal. The question isn't whether we get to a rolling average of 3%, it's how fast.
The city and state must track slightly different data. City is reporting 3.25% - https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york
@anonymous The city data is weird. The percentage can chage for a few days after it's initially posted. So, for instance, yesterday had a 1.93% rate. But then today, yesterday's percentage is down to 1.41% but today's number is 3.25%. I'll be watching tomorrow to see whether today's number is adjsuted downwards again. I've noticed this before when there has been a mini-spike. The state numbers are more transparent and don't change.
It’s awful that its just in a few neighborhoods too. Not the city as a whole.
Anonymous
Sep 30
I think it's nice that it's confined to a few neighborhoods. Do you mean it's awful that the rest of the city is being punished for the actions of a few sections?
Or rates could hold steady, in which case you've got a week. Or rates could waver up and down with 3.25% being at the high end, in which case you've got longer. So let's not give up yet please!
There's a difference between giving up and making realistic preparations! The rate will continue to go up (on average) until there is sufficiently increased testing and/or restrictions. Public health scientists have been saying the same thing since mid August.
@anonymous The rate will not necessarily continue to go up on average. There is a phenomenon called "reversion to the mean" which means that if the steady-state rate is, say 2% and you see a day with 3.25% then you can reasonably expect the next day's rate to be lower, thus reverting to the mean.
this is glittery unicorn thinking :) With kids and teachers returning to school en masse, the expectation is that the rate will go up. There is no "steady state" or mean to which we can revert because we're setting a new normal. The question isn't whether we get to a rolling average of 3%, it's how fast.
Where did you see that? https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-positive-results-region-dashboard has NYC at 1.6% for yesterday. Southern Tier is 3.6%, Mid-Hudson is 3.1%.
The city and state must track slightly different data. City is reporting 3.25% - https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york
@anonymous The city data is weird. The percentage can chage for a few days after it's initially posted. So, for instance, yesterday had a 1.93% rate. But then today, yesterday's percentage is down to 1.41% but today's number is 3.25%. I'll be watching tomorrow to see whether today's number is adjsuted downwards again. I've noticed this before when there has been a mini-spike. The state numbers are more transparent and don't change.
It’s awful that its just in a few neighborhoods too. Not the city as a whole.
I think it's nice that it's confined to a few neighborhoods. Do you mean it's awful that the rest of the city is being punished for the actions of a few sections?
Those neighborhoods should have strict measures. not the whole city.
Cuomo re-iterated today he gets to decide what opens and closes.
@Anonymous he needs to act on it STAT before it becomes a citywide problem AGAIN. Enough dillydallying
You think the whole school system needs to close down if the spike is limited to certain areas?!
Aren't the kids in those areas mostly in religious schools? DOE should not have to shut down because of this.
@Anon Yes whoever raised Ramaz earlier on was apparently prescient.
I could be wrong but I don't think you are quoting the rolling average that they look at which is over a 7 day period.