It can't just be social distancing. I live in a neighborhood with a fair amount of low-income housing and I see groups of people every day having enormous mask-free parties. If anything the #'s keep going down.
People are outdoors generally, unlike in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, where it is extremely hot (often over 100 degrees) and people are inside in the air-conditioning. The virus is also most serious for older people and people with underlying medical conditions, and I think those people are being very careful and isolating. (And I'm not sure what the low-income housing has to do with it. I see big gatherings in Prospect Park all the time. All of those people are not low-income, but they do tend to be younger).
This is true. No sane person wants to be outside for more than 30-60 minutes right now, even in the morning or evening. In the evening, if you are stationary like on a terrace or yard, to mosquitoes eat you alive and it’s still really hot. So of course all house parties are indoors right now. I also remember that they were worried about these senior centers, where poorer seniors spend the day in air conditioned rooms together. if they don’t come, they risk heat strokes in their homes, if they come, they risk Covid. Not sure how they solved this problem.
@BrooklynMom, I stand corrected, it isn't necessarily related to low-income housing - that's just where the parties are in my nabe (relatively low #'s of young people).
@anonymous Gotcha. And to be fair, there probably is some connection. All the wealthier people I know left the city and are hiding out at their vacation homes.
IMO its the weather and people doing a lot of things outside. There are very few documented cases of transmission outdoors. When its gets cold and we move inside, unless people go back to isolating themselves it could get bad. But also, the percentage of people carrying the virus right now is pretty low, so even if you chat with someone mask-free, the odds that that person can infect you are not like they were back in April and May.
I will state the unpopular hypothesis that there is substantial immunity resistance. Not full herd immunity, but enough to make a difference. Enough that 50-60% mask wearing, the good weather, etc, make it tolerable.
I agree but I;ll also add that I read in the Washington Post about T-Cell immunity to other corona virus is also a factor contributing to herd immunity. We also have to remember that herd immunity isn't an on/off switch. It can be a continuum that rises/lowers the rate of infection. As OR noted, a higher rate of mask wearing, being outside, lower prevalence, and being apart combines with natural immunity to bring down spread.
People are outdoors generally, unlike in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, where it is extremely hot (often over 100 degrees) and people are inside in the air-conditioning. The virus is also most serious for older people and people with underlying medical conditions, and I think those people are being very careful and isolating. (And I'm not sure what the low-income housing has to do with it. I see big gatherings in Prospect Park all the time. All of those people are not low-income, but they do tend to be younger).
This is true. No sane person wants to be outside for more than 30-60 minutes right now, even in the morning or evening. In the evening, if you are stationary like on a terrace or yard, to mosquitoes eat you alive and it’s still really hot. So of course all house parties are indoors right now. I also remember that they were worried about these senior centers, where poorer seniors spend the day in air conditioned rooms together. if they don’t come, they risk heat strokes in their homes, if they come, they risk Covid. Not sure how they solved this problem.
@BrooklynMom, I stand corrected, it isn't necessarily related to low-income housing - that's just where the parties are in my nabe (relatively low #'s of young people).
@anonymous Gotcha. And to be fair, there probably is some connection. All the wealthier people I know left the city and are hiding out at their vacation homes.
IMO its the weather and people doing a lot of things outside. There are very few documented cases of transmission outdoors. When its gets cold and we move inside, unless people go back to isolating themselves it could get bad. But also, the percentage of people carrying the virus right now is pretty low, so even if you chat with someone mask-free, the odds that that person can infect you are not like they were back in April and May.
I will state the unpopular hypothesis that there is substantial immunity resistance. Not full herd immunity, but enough to make a difference. Enough that 50-60% mask wearing, the good weather, etc, make it tolerable.
Agree
I love how the Data and Science folks pick and choose which data and scientific concepts to accept. I have no idea why this has become controversial.
I agree but I;ll also add that I read in the Washington Post about T-Cell immunity to other corona virus is also a factor contributing to herd immunity. We also have to remember that herd immunity isn't an on/off switch. It can be a continuum that rises/lowers the rate of infection. As OR noted, a higher rate of mask wearing, being outside, lower prevalence, and being apart combines with natural immunity to bring down spread.
The most heretical term of 2020: herd immunity.