probably not, especially now that we're not testing asymptomatic. But overall, it is probably going down
We were doing 1,000,000 tests a day in the USA. Now we are doing 700,000. So it’s hard to say. The question is whether the # of cases per capita is going down? I don’t know. I bet someone here has a link for that?
I hate that I can’t trust anything these days.
I don't have an answer, but I have some thoughts/observations.
1. Numbers seem to be going down gradually, not a sudden drop. This suggests to me that if there is a change in testing that is influencing case counts, it is a change in behavior rather than a change in methodology or policy. (ie, people are choosing to get tested less often for whatever reason).
2. Numbers seem to be going down across the board. When I recently checked, only two states had rising case numbers. Numbers are going down even in high testing areas. OTOH, this could cut the other way. The consistent number decline across the board could be due to a change in policy.
3. I sometimes wonder in NYC who are all the people who are testing themselves and coming up negative? We have an under 1% positive rate out of people testing, which to me suggests that in addition to having a low community prevalence, we have TONS of people testing even though they have no reason to think that they are infectious. I suspect people are getting tested in NYC for work, before going to see family, etc. In states where that is not happening, it's not going to impact numbers very much.
4. Deaths and hospitalizations don't seem to be spiking, from what I've seen.