If you still haven’t left and intend to, when are you looking to leave and why? Curious if most of it has already happened or there’s still more to come.
I think there's a lot more to come. I have a couple of friends that are in the midst of selling apartments right now and looking for their next spot (in CT) - it's just tough to find a desirable place out there at the moment. Many renters have already left but the owners are taking longer to disentangle.
I agree there's a lot more to come -- mostly because companies (and people) are realizing that you don't need to be in the office to be productive. And if that's true, you can literally live anywhere (including in a very low COL area) and keep your comparatively high paying job here in NYC.
Right, but has any company issued any official guidance on remote work in the future? Most people fleeing to the burbs of NY are probably assuming that they’d still have to commute regularly, but if their employers suddenly decide fully remote is ok, then ...
Companies are realizing that they don't need such a massive real estate footprint and that people don't need dedicated desks. What the pandemic has shown is that you can leverage people's home spaces to reduce the cost of your real estate. So you might come in for bi-weekly in person meetings in the future but otherwise WFH. Or maybe you come in on a rotation -- WFH half of the month or 3/4 of the month. Under either scenario, you might move your family to a big house in CT or NY and then commute 1-2 weeks out of the month. NBD compared to what it used to be.
I don't know anyone who is leaving now. But maybe I know a different crowd. The people I know are generally not in high paying jobs, but for whatever reason have found a way to make it work in NYC and are here because they like city life. Also, I think it's an overstatement that all jobs can be done remotely. Yes, we're getting our work done remotely, but for many of us we feel it's not being done as well. While that's fine right now as everyone is remote, as soon as going back to the office is an option you are going to see promotions and raises going to those who are more productive--ie, those in the office.
being in the office doesn't necessarily mean being more productive. Particularly when you cut out commuting time, socializing time, pointless starbucks runs 2x/day, etc. if you had said face time makes a difference, I might have agreed. But productivity? Not necessarily.
@AnonymousIt probably differs per industry and position, but there are benefits for being in the office, even part time. My prediction is that, long term, those who show up to the office will be compensated more. But I also see that many will not find that extra compensation worthwhile and will opt for WFH roles.
@Anonymous Depends. Felt they wouldn't be able to afford a nice home in the 'burbs they liked if they took a big hit on price, lost momentum, realized a vaccine is coming and they might want to stay after all...
We moved once we got the blessing from our company to move out of state, in writing. I think there are a lot of assumptions right now, and there will be many unhappy people once corps want their employees back in office. I already know several families now commuting to work because the management wants them back citing lower production and looming layoffs.
Yea I was shocked at the mass exodus - people assumed wfh would be forever ...
Many companies.wont support that long term. If they did it would be bad for new yorkers..they could hire someone in iowa for a fraction of a nyc salary
I assume a lot of people like us who own do not want to sell at the market's lowest point so holding on. plus a lot of people still have kids enrolled in NYC schools and need to flex a bunch of pieces - can't just make such a rapid move.
People here have spoken about the fact that high COL is pushing people out of NYC and that it makes sense for people to adopt lower pay to compensate. But, assuming that this exodus occurs, people are forgetting to consider the impact it will have on NYC COL. If there is a max exodus, COL could go down to a place where it makes sense to remain.
But it hasn't happened yet for buyers outside of Manhattan. The massive money-printing and historically low mortgage rates spurred even more buying there. And a lot of the rent decreases are actually incentives which will be short term, like 3 mo free, which really doesn't lower the real price. I agree that COL will drop and many people are better off staying in the city and going to their offices. The moment you are completely remote and easily replaceable, there is no need to pay you NYC salary.
I think there's a lot more to come. I have a couple of friends that are in the midst of selling apartments right now and looking for their next spot (in CT) - it's just tough to find a desirable place out there at the moment. Many renters have already left but the owners are taking longer to disentangle.
I agree there's a lot more to come -- mostly because companies (and people) are realizing that you don't need to be in the office to be productive. And if that's true, you can literally live anywhere (including in a very low COL area) and keep your comparatively high paying job here in NYC.
Right, but has any company issued any official guidance on remote work in the future? Most people fleeing to the burbs of NY are probably assuming that they’d still have to commute regularly, but if their employers suddenly decide fully remote is ok, then ...
Companies are realizing that they don't need such a massive real estate footprint and that people don't need dedicated desks. What the pandemic has shown is that you can leverage people's home spaces to reduce the cost of your real estate. So you might come in for bi-weekly in person meetings in the future but otherwise WFH. Or maybe you come in on a rotation -- WFH half of the month or 3/4 of the month. Under either scenario, you might move your family to a big house in CT or NY and then commute 1-2 weeks out of the month. NBD compared to what it used to be.
You will be paid less if you move to lower COL. Most companies adjust your salaries.
I don't know anyone who is leaving now. But maybe I know a different crowd. The people I know are generally not in high paying jobs, but for whatever reason have found a way to make it work in NYC and are here because they like city life. Also, I think it's an overstatement that all jobs can be done remotely. Yes, we're getting our work done remotely, but for many of us we feel it's not being done as well. While that's fine right now as everyone is remote, as soon as going back to the office is an option you are going to see promotions and raises going to those who are more productive--ie, those in the office.
being in the office doesn't necessarily mean being more productive. Particularly when you cut out commuting time, socializing time, pointless starbucks runs 2x/day, etc. if you had said face time makes a difference, I might have agreed. But productivity? Not necessarily.
@AnonymousIt probably differs per industry and position, but there are benefits for being in the office, even part time. My prediction is that, long term, those who show up to the office will be compensated more. But I also see that many will not find that extra compensation worthwhile and will opt for WFH roles.
I think the playing field will be leveled as many roles become rotational through the office. So people will have to go in, but infrequently.
I know three people who tried to sell, couldn't, and pulled their apartments off the market. My guess is they'll wind up staying put.
Just curious, why did they pull versus cut the price. Would be taking a loss and couldn't afford it, think the market is coming back, etc.?
@Anonymous Depends. Felt they wouldn't be able to afford a nice home in the 'burbs they liked if they took a big hit on price, lost momentum, realized a vaccine is coming and they might want to stay after all...
We are waiting for k decisions in Feb and then will decide. We'd like to move to lower westchester - hopefully before July
I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens with MS/HS admissions. We'll leave if we get a shitty placement for our 8th grader.
We moved once we got the blessing from our company to move out of state, in writing. I think there are a lot of assumptions right now, and there will be many unhappy people once corps want their employees back in office. I already know several families now commuting to work because the management wants them back citing lower production and looming layoffs.
Yea I was shocked at the mass exodus - people assumed wfh would be forever ...
Many companies.wont support that long term. If they did it would be bad for new yorkers..they could hire someone in iowa for a fraction of a nyc salary
Agree 100%. They are NOT going to pay the NYC premium. My equivalent position in my new town pays 50% of what I make.
As taxes go up even more and the relative value is so low it doesn’t make sense to stay in NYC
I assume a lot of people like us who own do not want to sell at the market's lowest point so holding on. plus a lot of people still have kids enrolled in NYC schools and need to flex a bunch of pieces - can't just make such a rapid move.
People here have spoken about the fact that high COL is pushing people out of NYC and that it makes sense for people to adopt lower pay to compensate. But, assuming that this exodus occurs, people are forgetting to consider the impact it will have on NYC COL. If there is a max exodus, COL could go down to a place where it makes sense to remain.
But it hasn't happened yet for buyers outside of Manhattan. The massive money-printing and historically low mortgage rates spurred even more buying there. And a lot of the rent decreases are actually incentives which will be short term, like 3 mo free, which really doesn't lower the real price. I agree that COL will drop and many people are better off staying in the city and going to their offices. The moment you are completely remote and easily replaceable, there is no need to pay you NYC salary.