I'm not sure why it would not go up. If more people are out, then of course it will go up. The questions to look at what is the rate of infection (ie, will it grow exponentially). What are hospitalizations looking like? Do we have space for people and are people staying in hospital long? What are the death rates?
Yes, but the thinking is that since deaths are a lagging indicator, we can't wait to see those #'s change before we lock down. As far as hospitalizations, no one seems to care about that anymore - people are too afraid of getting sick and the vague reports about long-term damage, months-long illnesses, etc.
I hear that, but aren't those concerns something that happens with other illnesses as well. I saw a mom group discussing PANDAS from strep. There are lots of types of long-term damage possible from common diseases.
I happen to agree with you, but people have lost their rational views on this whole thing. I would say at least half my mom friends - none of whom are elderly, obese, diabetic etc - have already opted their kids out of in-person school in the fall due to being scared of catching the virus.
Many are scared of it, even being young. There are many many many stories of those like Nick Cordero, young & healthy people can and do die from it. Is it the norm, no. But its a possibility.
Well, I'm afraid of the flu, too, which kills thousands of kids every year. I know a woman in her 40's who nearly died of Type A flu last year. I just think the degree of fear around Covid has gotten a little out of control. It's worth exercising caution, wearing a mask etc. but not locking yourself away forever. In my personal opinion. YMMV.
Given that we don't know a whole lot about the moderate to long term effects of symptomatic or asymptomatic infection in children/adolescents/adults, just transitioned hospital data to a less transparent system and are still learning how to effectively treat serious infections, I think that there is a good case for being cautious. Add to it the federal 'suggestion' to test less, and I'm keeping my school age kid at home. I remember talking with a surgeon at Brigham many years ago about how he had to stop practice because he had post-polio tremors... we honestly still don't know enough about this to be 'rational'
What matters is deaths
Deaths are a lagging indicator. By the time the death rate goes up, you likely have mass community spread.
I'm not sure why it would not go up. If more people are out, then of course it will go up. The questions to look at what is the rate of infection (ie, will it grow exponentially). What are hospitalizations looking like? Do we have space for people and are people staying in hospital long? What are the death rates?
A rational person here, thank you
Yes, but the thinking is that since deaths are a lagging indicator, we can't wait to see those #'s change before we lock down. As far as hospitalizations, no one seems to care about that anymore - people are too afraid of getting sick and the vague reports about long-term damage, months-long illnesses, etc.
I hear that, but aren't those concerns something that happens with other illnesses as well. I saw a mom group discussing PANDAS from strep. There are lots of types of long-term damage possible from common diseases.
My mom lost hearing in one ear from a bad cold... freak stuff happens with any virus.
I happen to agree with you, but people have lost their rational views on this whole thing. I would say at least half my mom friends - none of whom are elderly, obese, diabetic etc - have already opted their kids out of in-person school in the fall due to being scared of catching the virus.
Many are scared of it, even being young. There are many many many stories of those like Nick Cordero, young & healthy people can and do die from it. Is it the norm, no. But its a possibility.
Well, I'm afraid of the flu, too, which kills thousands of kids every year. I know a woman in her 40's who nearly died of Type A flu last year. I just think the degree of fear around Covid has gotten a little out of control. It's worth exercising caution, wearing a mask etc. but not locking yourself away forever. In my personal opinion. YMMV.
The flu is more dangerous than this virus for children.
It's not going up. Cuomo releases the numbers on twitter every morning
More tests=more cases. Good indicator is hospital new covid admissions (not increasing)
Given that we don't know a whole lot about the moderate to long term effects of symptomatic or asymptomatic infection in children/adolescents/adults, just transitioned hospital data to a less transparent system and are still learning how to effectively treat serious infections, I think that there is a good case for being cautious. Add to it the federal 'suggestion' to test less, and I'm keeping my school age kid at home. I remember talking with a surgeon at Brigham many years ago about how he had to stop practice because he had post-polio tremors... we honestly still don't know enough about this to be 'rational'
Can you post a link? Because daily counts in the graph below seem fairly stable:
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-positive-results-region-dashboard - select NYC. We were below 1% at one point, now it's at 1.4% and some counties (Bronx, Queens) at 1.6%.