Haven't done one of these in a while. February 2021 - best guesses. What will be the same/different/better/worse? Schools, economy, Covid treatments, NYC in general, etc...
Schools: open. Economy: not great because of compounding lagging effects. Covid treatments: not as important as we initially thought because the virus mutated to less deadly and we developed more wide-spread immunity naturally. NYC in general: people back in the office, although the City is not as full as pre-COVID, there is still strong demand. Much focus on upcoming Mayoral election as a bright spot of hope. Ideas to generate revenue and cut costs will only be implemented with new mayor.
we'll be cold and still waiting for a vaccine and probably some sort of civil war due to crazed peach overlord refusal to depart WH. hopefully some more rapid tests.
Anonymous
Sep 10, 2020
I think the national guard gets to escort him in Jan if he refuses to vacate.
Schools: sealed shut because no one can agree on what is actually "safe." At some point it becomes apparent that public schools aren't happening in person this year and we all have to deal...
...Which is ironic because at the same time, Covid becomes much, much less deadly. Deaths go down to under 50 per day in the US, mainly people who are already very high-risk. Vaccines never make it past Stage 3 trials. The focus has turned to the still-mysterious post-Covid ailments, with furious debate on either side about whether the afflicted are hysterical/making it up or genuinely ill. The media works hard to fuel this debate (I can already picture the NY Times multimedia project "Portrait of Covid survivors" with the dramatic violin background music).
NYC: The epitome of K-shaped recession, with dozens of homeless on every street, increasing violence, and the gilded finance crowd cruising around in town cars, en route to and from their second (formerly summer) homes.
The vast majority of us are still working from home.
I like your writing style and would read your dystopian novel. Your post reminds me of this Gothamist article, "Meet those who stayed" as if there are 3 of them. https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/we-have-world-win-new-yorkers-not-leaving-nyc
Biden is president. A vaccine has been approved, but it is not yet out to everyone -- it has gone to health care providers, nursing homes and essential personnel and is slowly becoming available to the general population. People are suspicous of it but so far no terrible side effects have been discovered. Schools are open but everyone is still masked as a precaution, but strict social distancing measures have eased. Most people are back to the office at least part-time. Numbers in NYC are still low, though a little bit higher in the fall, but deaths and hospitalizations are low so people aren't freaking out, especially with the vaccine out and Biden being president. The economic effects of the pandemic are still being felt but we are trying to get back to normal.
I can't envision any other scenario, otherwise I will collapse in despair.
I agree. I must hold on to this in order to keep moving forward at this point. Please dear god, let us make it through this election and get rid of the orange bastard.
The gilded finance age is over, and there is blood running in the streets from massive layoffs at every bank in NYC. They did it just after Christmas, believing they were being kind. The rest of New York City braces for a downward spiral into an even deeper recession without all the finance dollars to prop up the economy. The landscape is bleak. The blurred line between COVID fevers and flu fevers wreaked havoc on the NYC school system, whose virtual doors are open, but whose physical doors have been closed since November. No one talks about the Have Nots, who are like a terrible family secret that cannot be discussed in polite company. Trump is still president, having eked out a victory in the electoral college, much as he did with HRC. Joe Biden - ever the gentleman - has stepped aside in the name of stability for the republic, like HRC before him and Al Gore before her. Those still left in New York hang on, showing their grit in a city filled with crime and poverty. Hoping that a new mayor brings redemption.
Why would there be massive finance layoffs? Also, what about literally every other profession that has been more directly hit, like education, entertainment, dining, tourism, etc?
@Anonymous You must not work in finance. There have already been layoffs, but most banks promised to wait until after year end likely because no one thought COVID would last that long. Many, many, MANY industries have been hit. But the finance industry is what fuels NYC and if they go down, we all do -- the arts, dining, entertainment. Everything.
@Anonymous (OR) DH works at a small hedge fund which hasn't had any covid related firings. But you're right that I don't know that much about the finance world.
I predict there will be a big study showing that masks aren't really that effective, except in a few very specific circumstances. This will provoke new fights among the anti- and pro-mask crowds, but most people will stop wearing them regularly.
Really? They have already done studies on this, masks are very effective at preventing you from spreading the disease if you have it and they have also shown there is some benefit to the wearer.
Not back to normal, but not as bad as March. Fear will decrease. Restaurants will open up more. More people will go back to their offices, school in person will increase and the labor union's clout will be tamped down or flat out ignored. It will be a new, evolving normal"er" than now. I don't think this resolves with a vaccine. It resolves with time. We need to be patient. Me especially.
Cuomo will still be trying to screw/undermine Deblasio at ever turn, yet refuses to remove him. Hence NYC will be more locked down the rest of the State, still.
Schools: open. Economy: not great because of compounding lagging effects. Covid treatments: not as important as we initially thought because the virus mutated to less deadly and we developed more wide-spread immunity naturally. NYC in general: people back in the office, although the City is not as full as pre-COVID, there is still strong demand. Much focus on upcoming Mayoral election as a bright spot of hope. Ideas to generate revenue and cut costs will only be implemented with new mayor.
we'll be cold and still waiting for a vaccine and probably some sort of civil war due to crazed peach overlord refusal to depart WH. hopefully some more rapid tests.
I think the national guard gets to escort him in Jan if he refuses to vacate.
Schools: sealed shut because no one can agree on what is actually "safe." At some point it becomes apparent that public schools aren't happening in person this year and we all have to deal...
...Which is ironic because at the same time, Covid becomes much, much less deadly. Deaths go down to under 50 per day in the US, mainly people who are already very high-risk. Vaccines never make it past Stage 3 trials. The focus has turned to the still-mysterious post-Covid ailments, with furious debate on either side about whether the afflicted are hysterical/making it up or genuinely ill. The media works hard to fuel this debate (I can already picture the NY Times multimedia project "Portrait of Covid survivors" with the dramatic violin background music).
NYC: The epitome of K-shaped recession, with dozens of homeless on every street, increasing violence, and the gilded finance crowd cruising around in town cars, en route to and from their second (formerly summer) homes.
The vast majority of us are still working from home.
No one knows who the real POTUS actually is.
That's all from me.
I like your writing style and would read your dystopian novel. Your post reminds me of this Gothamist article, "Meet those who stayed" as if there are 3 of them. https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/we-have-world-win-new-yorkers-not-leaving-nyc
np- Having read that article, Gil from Prospect Heights, Brooklyn, you speak to my soul. Haha!
@Anonymous Why, thank you!
Biden is president. A vaccine has been approved, but it is not yet out to everyone -- it has gone to health care providers, nursing homes and essential personnel and is slowly becoming available to the general population. People are suspicous of it but so far no terrible side effects have been discovered. Schools are open but everyone is still masked as a precaution, but strict social distancing measures have eased. Most people are back to the office at least part-time. Numbers in NYC are still low, though a little bit higher in the fall, but deaths and hospitalizations are low so people aren't freaking out, especially with the vaccine out and Biden being president. The economic effects of the pandemic are still being felt but we are trying to get back to normal.
I can't envision any other scenario, otherwise I will collapse in despair.
I agree. I must hold on to this in order to keep moving forward at this point. Please dear god, let us make it through this election and get rid of the orange bastard.
This is the best case scenario. Let's hope it comes to pass.
The gilded finance age is over, and there is blood running in the streets from massive layoffs at every bank in NYC. They did it just after Christmas, believing they were being kind. The rest of New York City braces for a downward spiral into an even deeper recession without all the finance dollars to prop up the economy. The landscape is bleak. The blurred line between COVID fevers and flu fevers wreaked havoc on the NYC school system, whose virtual doors are open, but whose physical doors have been closed since November. No one talks about the Have Nots, who are like a terrible family secret that cannot be discussed in polite company. Trump is still president, having eked out a victory in the electoral college, much as he did with HRC. Joe Biden - ever the gentleman - has stepped aside in the name of stability for the republic, like HRC before him and Al Gore before her. Those still left in New York hang on, showing their grit in a city filled with crime and poverty. Hoping that a new mayor brings redemption.
Why would there be massive finance layoffs? Also, what about literally every other profession that has been more directly hit, like education, entertainment, dining, tourism, etc?
@Anonymous You must not work in finance. There have already been layoffs, but most banks promised to wait until after year end likely because no one thought COVID would last that long. Many, many, MANY industries have been hit. But the finance industry is what fuels NYC and if they go down, we all do -- the arts, dining, entertainment. Everything.
@Anonymous (OR) DH works at a small hedge fund which hasn't had any covid related firings. But you're right that I don't know that much about the finance world.
I predict there will be a big study showing that masks aren't really that effective, except in a few very specific circumstances. This will provoke new fights among the anti- and pro-mask crowds, but most people will stop wearing them regularly.
Really? They have already done studies on this, masks are very effective at preventing you from spreading the disease if you have it and they have also shown there is some benefit to the wearer.
@Anonymous I know. I'm basing this on the fact that everything we think we know about Covid, seems to be proven wrong a few months later.
Not back to normal, but not as bad as March. Fear will decrease. Restaurants will open up more. More people will go back to their offices, school in person will increase and the labor union's clout will be tamped down or flat out ignored. It will be a new, evolving normal"er" than now. I don't think this resolves with a vaccine. It resolves with time. We need to be patient. Me especially.
Cuomo will still be trying to screw/undermine Deblasio at ever turn, yet refuses to remove him. Hence NYC will be more locked down the rest of the State, still.
I think Cuomo well knows he needs the tax base from downstate.
yes, but what is he going to do about it?