Opinions? I'm scared.
Apparently! Or maybe worse b/c of quarantine fatigue. I think people are prancing around like they did in the summer, except it's "illness" season and it's spreading quickly.
Define bad. We will probably have more infections but the death rate will be lower.
3000 in one day yesterday. Worse day yet.
I assume you're referring to NYC specifically. It's already much worse (numbers wise) where I live (northern VT) than in March. But the difference is that we know a bit more how it's spread. We can keep schools open (for now). We have contact tracing in place. We have some limited therapeutics.
You work in a hospital there, right? How are you feeling? what is the hospital situation? Enough beds?
Is this for me (VT mom?). Doing ok. On pins and needles waiting to hear if I get the vax soon. We had a huge surge in mid-November in my hospital area, and at one point they were trying to open up new sections of the hospital for Covid patients and an overflow ER in our parking lot. Then our governor put us on stricter restrictions, and our numbers haven’t grown. (But they haven’t gone down, either!)
Wow- that's a tense situation. Sending you lots of good vibes -
In NYC? No. It will get worse, but it will not get as bad as March because we actually learned the lesson in March. Everywhere else it will be way way worse than it was in NYC because they didn't get it very bad to begin with (likely due to precautions, being spread out, etc.) and so people don't realize precautions do work and are not taking it seriously. Most states don't have very good testing infrastructure set up and are not mandating masks. It's going to be a hard winter, but I do think NYC will have it better.
OP: I think what you said makes sense and I agree.
No, for NYC. Back in March, we had in reality many, many more cases than counted (positivity rate 40%+ anyone?, 70%+ in parts of the city), maybe 5x-10x more. Measures will be taken at much earlier levels now. Also in-patient treatment has improved a lot. That means not only lower mortality, but also shorter in-patient stays. Having said that, I don't think it'll be nice.
If they are at some point able to test for t-cell immunity (which apparently lasts much longer than antibodies), it would be interesting. I know so, so many people who were sick in Feb-March and have no idea whether they had it - odds are many of them did.
NYC MD mom here -- I don't actually think treatment has changed much despite what the media keep reporting. I keep looking for these big breakthroughs and it's just not there. Only difference I can see is that when hospitals are not completely overwhelmed there are enough nurses and that makes a huge difference for mortality. In March patients couldn't get a nurse so they would take off oxygen, walk to the bathroom, drop dead. Horrible.
Never heard of this kind of testing. Tell me more!
Agree with everyone who thinks it will not get as bad in NYC as March. For all those reasons. Everywhere else, good luck, have fun with that.