...I think Trump is going to win in a landslide. We're visiting relatives in a "blue state" and there are Trump signs everywhere. Same as 2016. I think these endless articles claiming that the polling companies have corrected their problems, that they're more accurate this time around are just as FOS as they were four years ago.
Oh, and in 2016, the state polls had Hillary up by MORE than Biden is now. I remember seeing the polls, and then seeing all the Trump signs and thinking, hmm, something doesn't seem right here. And then came Election Night...
Listen to the 538 podcast. They’re the only ones who had reasonable predictions of what happened in 2016. I like their projections.
But I hear you. We live in solidly blue Vermont and traveled to northern Maine recently. The amount of Trump signs was concerning. Many People without masks. And I actually saw a man in a Hillary for Prison shirt....
Here’s a link to their latest projections. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000494211593
Yes and 538's Nate Silver was wrong in 2016 - he has his knickers in a twist over a recent JPM bro forecast that shows Biden flailing. If Nate worked in a real industry he would have been furloughed by now....
I don’t think he will win by a landslide, but it’s entirely possible he will eke out a victory the same way he did in 2016. Especially with all this coverage that Biden has it in the bag, which only serves to discourage voting by his supporters, imo. And I don't think there’s a snowflake‘s chance we will have a definitive answer by Election Day.
Biden’s polling average for months now has been steadily above Clinton’s at her peak. she had a double digit lead in individual polls now and again, but not on average.
Honestly, Biden has got this right now unless the voter suppression efforts succeed with lots of mail in ballots rejected. That’s the scariest part right now.
Don't count your chickens. That attitude is what will keep a lot of people at home.
So ITA. I kept telling friends last time that so many voters will go and vote for Trump, but not necessarily sharing that in polls. But they were ready with their white pantsuits for election day win. That said, I am donating where I can even if it looks like a long shot.
Got that Chris Matthews tingle going!
Just go vote! Get your mother, grandmother, grand-uncle , whatever to vote! There are people standing in line for hours around the country. I think people are voting with a vengeance like never before. We can't Evil win over Good.