My guess is we have decreasing cases in spring and summer and then a rise in cases in fall but nothing like we had the first time around. Eventually it becomes similar to the flu - occasionally deadly but we don't stop living our lives because of it.
I assume there will be a third wave, yes. I'm less personally anxious about it - my parents and husband are vaccinated, and I'm very low risk - but I think it will jeopardize the return to full-time school.
I think there will be sufficiently large numbers of people vaccinated and/or who have built up natural immunity that there will not be a third wave. Kids will be back in school full time in the fall.
@ Anonymous Unfortunately most projections have been dead-on. They said there would be a huge wave in the fall-winter, and indeed, that is what happened. The current dip was also predicted.
I don't think we can move past this if we can't get comfortable with the idea of proceeding without zero risk. COVID is here to stay. If vaccinations keeps moving along and hopefully speed up through the spring, I expect things to start recovering.
We won't get back to 2019, but if you're practical you knew that already.
Yes, take a look at the predictions for NY in April-May. It shows a significant third wave.
I agree re: zero risk but I think a lot of people are going to struggle with that. I expect a fair number of parents to demand a remote option for school next year, and companies are going to feel hesitant to demand that workers return to offices. All this will stall recovery.
Maybe I am missing something: I do see cumulative deaths (obviously, it's cumulative and have to go up) and daily infections + testing ticking up (worst case scenario line) but daily deaths, hospital resource use, etc. all look like they are heading in the right direction or plateauing if you are looking at the projection line.
I guess I am an optimist and choose to follow the projection vs. worst case line.
@Anonymous Well, Covid isn't as deadly as it was last spring. Even this past wave, deaths were a fraction of what they were in April. But as many have pointed out, it's not just about dying. The long-term effects of the virus aren't clear, there may be heart damage, etc. etc.
Virus rates in NYC have been going up the past couple of weeks, not down. And only 12% of the city has even gotten their first shot. There is no way we will be able to avoid a third wave with the new variants circulating and (foolishly) Cuomo opening things back up.
What data are you looking at to say its going up? It's going down pretty steeply since start of year. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page
@anonymous if you look at the rates and break it down by borough, you will see that there is a direct correlation between tests administered and percent positive, BUT, across the board the absolute numbers of cases are going down. To me, this means that people in the outer boroughs are simply testing less often. This makes sense. Look at who tests. (a) symptomatic people, (b) people near symptomatic people, (c) people who just test as a precautionary measure with no real reason. I think what we are seeing with dropping case numbers, dropping tests, and flat positivity percent, is that there is a lowering of group c.
My guess is we have decreasing cases in spring and summer and then a rise in cases in fall but nothing like we had the first time around. Eventually it becomes similar to the flu - occasionally deadly but we don't stop living our lives because of it.
I assume there will be a third wave, yes. I'm less personally anxious about it - my parents and husband are vaccinated, and I'm very low risk - but I think it will jeopardize the return to full-time school.
I think there will be sufficiently large numbers of people vaccinated and/or who have built up natural immunity that there will not be a third wave. Kids will be back in school full time in the fall.
@ Anonymous They're saying the third wave will be April - June.
I read something similar too. Hoping that this projection is proven wrong.
@ Anonymous Unfortunately most projections have been dead-on. They said there would be a huge wave in the fall-winter, and indeed, that is what happened. The current dip was also predicted.
Jesus! Enough already.
None of us like the idea, but we have to be realistic.
The projections here are helpful:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
I don't think we can move past this if we can't get comfortable with the idea of proceeding without zero risk. COVID is here to stay. If vaccinations keeps moving along and hopefully speed up through the spring, I expect things to start recovering.
We won't get back to 2019, but if you're practical you knew that already.
Yes, take a look at the predictions for NY in April-May. It shows a significant third wave.
I agree re: zero risk but I think a lot of people are going to struggle with that. I expect a fair number of parents to demand a remote option for school next year, and companies are going to feel hesitant to demand that workers return to offices. All this will stall recovery.
Maybe I am missing something: I do see cumulative deaths (obviously, it's cumulative and have to go up) and daily infections + testing ticking up (worst case scenario line) but daily deaths, hospital resource use, etc. all look like they are heading in the right direction or plateauing if you are looking at the projection line.
I guess I am an optimist and choose to follow the projection vs. worst case line.
@Anonymous Well, Covid isn't as deadly as it was last spring. Even this past wave, deaths were a fraction of what they were in April. But as many have pointed out, it's not just about dying. The long-term effects of the virus aren't clear, there may be heart damage, etc. etc.
Do these projections take into account the variants and reduced efficacy of current vaccines against some variants?
every vaccine protects against death and severe disease with all the variants so yes.
Virus rates in NYC have been going up the past couple of weeks, not down. And only 12% of the city has even gotten their first shot. There is no way we will be able to avoid a third wave with the new variants circulating and (foolishly) Cuomo opening things back up.
What data are you looking at to say its going up? It's going down pretty steeply since start of year. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page
@Anon Looking here: https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york
@anonymous if you look at the rates and break it down by borough, you will see that there is a direct correlation between tests administered and percent positive, BUT, across the board the absolute numbers of cases are going down. To me, this means that people in the outer boroughs are simply testing less often. This makes sense. Look at who tests. (a) symptomatic people, (b) people near symptomatic people, (c) people who just test as a precautionary measure with no real reason. I think what we are seeing with dropping case numbers, dropping tests, and flat positivity percent, is that there is a lowering of group c.