In April in NYC I was terrified that numbers would never go down and we'd never get this under control. In June I was afraid we'd never keep our numbers low, especially with the protests. Now I'm afraid that a second wave will come. What if we're wrong? We've seen Italy and China reopen. According to a NYTimes article I read, people in China are congregating and not wearing masks. We've seen the infection rate lower or stabilize in almost every state (when I checked this morning it was just two states with rising cases, which is a big change from a couple weeks ago). This drop is true even in states which are not closing or taking additional preventative measures.
Even when a state overall does not have, e.g., a mask mandate, the drops in its numbers are usually driven by municipalities that do.
I'd be interested to see data on this, but haven't seen anything suggesting this is the case.
@Anonymous here's an example:
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/south-carolina/article245243790.html
@Anon Thank you. Interesting. I'm thinking of Georgia, specifically, which is the state I'm most familiar with. There are no rules for those living in the suburbs, to my knowledge. But maybe they are voluntarily wearing masks?
Do you think it's possible we've all been exposed at this point and the people who were going to get sick got sick and the rest of us are just not going to get sick from this and all the closings and social distancing has been completely irrelevant to the outcome?
I don't think that social distancing is irrelevant, and I do practice social distancing. I'm trying to understand what is happening and why, and I don't really have a great explanation. As I said, I'm surprised.
@Anonymous This is my pet theory. I think it's a sneaky, super contagious virus and we're all going to get it at some point, if we haven't had it already. I don't think the lockdowns and social distancing were for naught - clearly overwhelmed hospitals is the worst-case scenario - but I don't think there's any such thing as reopening "safely" in a way that doesn't cause spread. So at some point our options are 1. reopen 2. stay locked down forever.
@anonymous (OP) I guess what I'm wondering is whether even with reopening that things won't be that bad.
Colleges are reporting major spikes throughout the country. Maybe things would be okay if we committed the funds to making schools and workplaces safe, and if everyone followed the rules and guidelines. But that's not happening in this country.