Do you think people, two years from now will look back at decisions they made now and regret them? I know people leaving their jobs and relocating homes on the possibility that things will be bad in NYC. I'm not confident things will be good in the short term, but starting a new career or leaving to another area doesn't seem that great, either. And, as some other posts have mentioned, some of the high purchase prices in the suburbs might translate to big losses in the near long-term.
The regret is going to hit the people spending a fortune on homes right now in the burbs. Places where people would never consider (houses on the market for months or years ) are going to get slammed when the market downturns. One big thing is in a year from now, companies may demand everyone in office and you’ll never be able to sell this houses. We moved to an area that has great schools and is far enough away from NY that we already have equity in the home.
Do you really think companies will demand everyone in the office? I don't think that it will necessarily be the case that all companies will, but I think the dynamics are that if you want to stay competitive, you will need to be close enough to come into the office on occasion or with some frequency. I think people who are moving far out feel that with the reduced frequency, they are ok with a far commute. But I agree that the overall pressure on housing prices will be down.
@Anonymous yes it’s already happening. I have neighbors going in a couple times a week , some in the burbs some taking the trains into the city. It’s such a weird thing. some companies are doing salary adjustments for your new city (we are dealing with that as well). This time next year there are going to be a lot of unhappy people with very long/ impossible commutes.
Also to add, the choice to leave a school for a situation which may or may not be better than the school, and then you can't go back.
It depends on what their decisions were. I don't think the city will have fully recovered in 2 years.
I'm not saying NYC will be "fully" recovered, but that plans that made sense in the short term, aren't going to be that great 2 years from now.
I can see this for the NYC-commutable region housing market, but if you made a big leap somewhere else, I doubt you’d regret it in two years.
I really can't think of anyone I know personally who made drastic life changes. There are people who moved to the suburbs who would have been there two years later, so I don't consider that a real life plan change. And other people made financially motivated moves which is different because they had no choice. Anecdotally I do see people on FB groups and yes, I think there will be some regret. I don't see permanent changes to the city. I also predict a lot of vacation homes on the market in a couple of years.
This. I don’t know anyone making drastic life changes. Anyone who is buying in the burbs wanted to buy in the burbs anyway, and this just spurred them on. To the extent some people are now buying in the burbs who wouldn’t have done so before, I think a fair amount of them will realize that life in NYC is pretty difficult, and once you escape, it can actually be really pleasant living someplace with more space and a yard. I don’t think this “fleeing to the suburbs” thing is tempoarary. The city was become too expensive and untenable for most families anyway.
@Anonymous I'm the OP and I posted this question after seeing a DW looking to move even though her DH has a successful job that is NY based (not a high paying job, but a high prestige job in his field that couldn't be found elsewhere). I couldn't even fathom that she was considering walking away from that.
@Anonymous That's what I see - for people who were already playing the "should we or shouldn't we go" game, the pandemic moved the needle to Should. But they would have gotten there anyway in a year or two. Those of us who were intent on making a life here, and comfortable with the compromises it entails, aren't changing anything.
If someone is so wealthy that they don’t really care about losing money on impulse real estate purchases, that’s fine. But scrambling to buy an overpriced house in a suburb or in FL where you would never want to live otherwise, seems foolish. NYers coming to my FL suburb right now are really getting horrible deals right now. All locals see this as their golden opportunity to finally sell overpriced houses to naive outsiders.once NY returns to normal, almost all employers will require employees to come back to the office, they’re already doing it in many other places.
Where in FL are you? I am thinking the Miami area RE market is going to continue to sink, except for this brief uptick in activity from fleeing Northerners.
Save money. Deal with the discomfort. Having a house outside NYC is not all it's cracked up to be. Gets boring AF in the burbs. I have a beach house in a desirable area and cannot wait to get back to NYC even if NYC is the pits right now.
I agree with this. We are pretty urban and I find life in the suburbs painfully boring.
We bought a second home within commuting distance. Definitely was not a consideration before COVID.
I believe there are secular shifts in lifestyle and working conditions that will result in long term preferences to live outside of cities. With NYC in particular the incremental cost is no longer attractive because the city is so dirty and dangerous. It’s not just the pandemic but also the social unrest.
The best jobs, medical care, schools etc. will always be in the big cities though, esp. NYC. Just the concentration and sheer number of them. I don't believe that remote work is good enough and employers are quickly realizing that, so no, we won't be allowed to work from anywhere in perpetuity.
@Anonymous Can you give examples of employers quickly realizing WFH FT is not good enough? I'm hearing otherwise.