So what's your point? In this country, places that didn't have lock downs or reopened too quickly have skyrocketing rates of transmission and increasing numbers of deaths right now. Are you saying we should just let the virus play out? (And this is a snapshot -- those numbers could change dramatically in a matter of weeks).
The graph looks like 2020 is significantly above baseline for prior years, and all of the reports I have read say that Sweden has had significant excess mortality as compared to other countries in Scandinavia, all of which are refusing to let Swedes enter, and has not had a significantly better economic outcome. So, hardly a model to follow.
OP: You are getting biased news. Sweden is doing significantly better economically. The pro-lockdown media selling you panic porn won’t admit. It’s a virus, yes old and seriously ill people will die from it, either now or later. It will burn through society one way or another. Remember flatten the curve? Complete elimination is an unachievable lie.
From the FT, doesn’t seem like the economy is an unqualified success... it’s pretty similar to neighboring countries which had a much lower death rate. https://www.ft.com/content/0460efd0-043b-4fd0-8f7e-14a05237ec6a
OP: so I live in another EU country that did a full lockdown and is now opening back up. Guess what is happening... Only 2 months of lockdown destroyed a decade of economic progress and raised national debt significantly. Now the virus is coming back! Lockdowns only kick the can down the road and destroy the economy in the process. Also remember that poverty kills. The only way out is to allow a slow burn through society, and that means that some people—mainly the old—will die. We have to be rational about the choices we are making and the consequences for the future.
MD mom. Sweden is welcome to let the virus "play out," but current research is showing that more than half of recovered Covid-19 patients are showing abnormalities on echocardiogram. This virus, though primarily transmitted from a respiratory mechanism, is showing itself to be more of a vascular disease, causing thromboses, stroke, heart damage, in addition to the classic pulmonary complications. You might get it and recover, but your organs may be permanently affected. No thanks on letting things "play out."
This! I'm also a bit surprised at the callousness of the 'let the chips fall where they may' mentality. Newest research has shown that more and more young(er) people are getting infected, some with devastating consequences. Even if it truly were only the elderly, which isn't the case, what a way to let a whole generation take the fall.
OP: I am aware of the research that this is more of a vascular disease that happens to be transmitted via the respiratory route. I will look at this study because I’m curious about the study size, age of participants, etc. However, even if it’s a riskier virus than current CDC stats indicate, how do we realistically eliminate it without completely decimating the economy? People must work to at very least have food to eat and a home to live. Poverty kills too. The economic risk is often poo-pooed in media yet it is extremely serious and real.
OP: MD mom, are you seriously trying to scare people with this study? The average age of participant is 62, 70% are male, almost 40% had pre-existing hypertension, over half had severe Covid, 60% were receiving critical care AT THE TIME OF THE SCAN. They scanned the hearts of people who have most of the major risk factors for getting severe Covid and found that the virus negatively affected their hearts. How is this surprising? How is this evidence against what I am saying? I acknowledged above that the old and ill will die—they also die of the flu and other viruses. When you can show me a study of over 50% of healthy and normal weight 18-40 year olds developing heart problems from this virus, then I will reconsider.
Just to give you an idea of what might happen if we let this "play out":
Sweden has a population of roughly 10 million and approximately 5,600 Covid related deaths. The US has a population of ca. 328 million and to date 142k deaths. That means that Sweden has a near 40% (!!) higher death rate than the US per capita. In fact, it had the highest death rate per capita across the globe. (Edit: it currently sits at no. 5in the EU)
Furthermore, Sweden's economy hasn't been spared. Spending is down, unemployment rates up, GDP forecast low. There are contradicting opinions on how exactly this will play out for Sweden's economy in the future. Some say the country may fare better than some of the worst hit European countries, others say they don't expect any discernible economic gain in remaining open particularly when compared to its direct neighbors Finland and Norway. Or Denmark for that matter.
Its is incredibly simplistic to suggest that the economy would have fared better if we all just stayed open. The virus would have ravaged this planet. Imagine the impact on the economy if all the countries had a similar death rate as Sweden. There is no perfect solution to this pandemic. But if we had to look a country that has managed the crisis fairly well so far, I suggest South Korea. Certainly not Sweden.
1) It would be more appropriate to compare Sweden’s relative performance to either other European countries or to specific cities/states in the US. The US is so large and hotspots are arriving and disappearing over many months, so a US vs Sweden comparison isn’t demonstrative of much. We could compare it to a similar sized country like Belgium, however. Belgium did a lockdown and its death rate was 844 per million. Another graph is here which indicates that Sweden did better than NYC too: https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/amp
2) Sweden’s economy actually GREW in Q1 and the preliminary Q2 contraction is projected to be only 4-6%. Compare this to estimated contractions of Spain (16-22%), Italy (5% in Q1 and 10% in Q2), Germany (10%), and France (15%). All countries that did lockdowns. So it is false to say that the economy has not been spared. It’s not showing the extent of economic contraction and increases in unemployment that the lockdown countries are.
np. Comparing to Belgium is also wrong, because they are known to count any and every death somehow related to COVID as a COVID death. So their numbers are much higher and therefore apple to oranges. Comparing the effects of a pandemic in a country like Sweden - much healthier population, access to excellent medical care for all and strong safety net is also apples to oranges. Just wait until hospitals start having financial problems, people cannot pay their medical bills and the insurance premiums are through the roof next year with more than 5mn people losing their health insurance.
Yeah, well, they are generally healthy people, and they have an excellent healthcare system. Here, not so much.
So the prob is unhealthy people, not opening shops.
So what's your point? In this country, places that didn't have lock downs or reopened too quickly have skyrocketing rates of transmission and increasing numbers of deaths right now. Are you saying we should just let the virus play out? (And this is a snapshot -- those numbers could change dramatically in a matter of weeks).
Agreed. The US is effectively letting this play out currently
OP: Yes we should reinforce the medical system and let the virus run its course. Complete elimination is not possible.
Ita ! Ad-hoc free dedicated hospitals to better treat everybody regardless of insurance, masks in public and let the virus run.
The graph looks like 2020 is significantly above baseline for prior years, and all of the reports I have read say that Sweden has had significant excess mortality as compared to other countries in Scandinavia, all of which are refusing to let Swedes enter, and has not had a significantly better economic outcome. So, hardly a model to follow.
This. Compare Sweden's excess mortality rate to that of its neighbor Norway. This is not what winning looks like.
OP: You are getting biased news. Sweden is doing significantly better economically. The pro-lockdown media selling you panic porn won’t admit. It’s a virus, yes old and seriously ill people will die from it, either now or later. It will burn through society one way or another. Remember flatten the curve? Complete elimination is an unachievable lie.
From the FT, doesn’t seem like the economy is an unqualified success... it’s pretty similar to neighboring countries which had a much lower death rate. https://www.ft.com/content/0460efd0-043b-4fd0-8f7e-14a05237ec6a
OP: so I live in another EU country that did a full lockdown and is now opening back up. Guess what is happening... Only 2 months of lockdown destroyed a decade of economic progress and raised national debt significantly. Now the virus is coming back! Lockdowns only kick the can down the road and destroy the economy in the process. Also remember that poverty kills. The only way out is to allow a slow burn through society, and that means that some people—mainly the old—will die. We have to be rational about the choices we are making and the consequences for the future.
+100
I'd rather be sick than starve
The problem is that the US seems incapable of getting its shit together to maintain a "slow burn through society". This is a wildfire.
Great !
MD mom. Sweden is welcome to let the virus "play out," but current research is showing that more than half of recovered Covid-19 patients are showing abnormalities on echocardiogram. This virus, though primarily transmitted from a respiratory mechanism, is showing itself to be more of a vascular disease, causing thromboses, stroke, heart damage, in addition to the classic pulmonary complications. You might get it and recover, but your organs may be permanently affected. No thanks on letting things "play out."
https://www.newsweek.com/scans-reveal-heart-damage-over-half-covid-19-patients-study-1517293
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/safety-quality/coronavirus-associated-heart-damage-study-finds
This! I'm also a bit surprised at the callousness of the 'let the chips fall where they may' mentality. Newest research has shown that more and more young(er) people are getting infected, some with devastating consequences. Even if it truly were only the elderly, which isn't the case, what a way to let a whole generation take the fall.
OP: I am aware of the research that this is more of a vascular disease that happens to be transmitted via the respiratory route. I will look at this study because I’m curious about the study size, age of participants, etc. However, even if it’s a riskier virus than current CDC stats indicate, how do we realistically eliminate it without completely decimating the economy? People must work to at very least have food to eat and a home to live. Poverty kills too. The economic risk is often poo-pooed in media yet it is extremely serious and real.
OP: MD mom, are you seriously trying to scare people with this study? The average age of participant is 62, 70% are male, almost 40% had pre-existing hypertension, over half had severe Covid, 60% were receiving critical care AT THE TIME OF THE SCAN. They scanned the hearts of people who have most of the major risk factors for getting severe Covid and found that the virus negatively affected their hearts. How is this surprising? How is this evidence against what I am saying? I acknowledged above that the old and ill will die—they also die of the flu and other viruses. When you can show me a study of over 50% of healthy and normal weight 18-40 year olds developing heart problems from this virus, then I will reconsider.
Just to give you an idea of what might happen if we let this "play out":
Sweden has a population of roughly 10 million and approximately 5,600 Covid related deaths. The US has a population of ca. 328 million and to date 142k deaths. That means that Sweden has a near 40% (!!) higher death rate than the US per capita. In fact, it had the highest death rate per capita across the globe. (Edit: it currently sits at no. 5in the EU)
Furthermore, Sweden's economy hasn't been spared. Spending is down, unemployment rates up, GDP forecast low. There are contradicting opinions on how exactly this will play out for Sweden's economy in the future. Some say the country may fare better than some of the worst hit European countries, others say they don't expect any discernible economic gain in remaining open particularly when compared to its direct neighbors Finland and Norway. Or Denmark for that matter.
Its is incredibly simplistic to suggest that the economy would have fared better if we all just stayed open. The virus would have ravaged this planet. Imagine the impact on the economy if all the countries had a similar death rate as Sweden. There is no perfect solution to this pandemic. But if we had to look a country that has managed the crisis fairly well so far, I suggest South Korea. Certainly not Sweden.
Or how about New Zealand?
1) It would be more appropriate to compare Sweden’s relative performance to either other European countries or to specific cities/states in the US. The US is so large and hotspots are arriving and disappearing over many months, so a US vs Sweden comparison isn’t demonstrative of much. We could compare it to a similar sized country like Belgium, however. Belgium did a lockdown and its death rate was 844 per million. Another graph is here which indicates that Sweden did better than NYC too: https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/amp
2) Sweden’s economy actually GREW in Q1 and the preliminary Q2 contraction is projected to be only 4-6%. Compare this to estimated contractions of Spain (16-22%), Italy (5% in Q1 and 10% in Q2), Germany (10%), and France (15%). All countries that did lockdowns. So it is false to say that the economy has not been spared. It’s not showing the extent of economic contraction and increases in unemployment that the lockdown countries are.
np. Comparing to Belgium is also wrong, because they are known to count any and every death somehow related to COVID as a COVID death. So their numbers are much higher and therefore apple to oranges. Comparing the effects of a pandemic in a country like Sweden - much healthier population, access to excellent medical care for all and strong safety net is also apples to oranges. Just wait until hospitals start having financial problems, people cannot pay their medical bills and the insurance premiums are through the roof next year with more than 5mn people losing their health insurance.