I was meaning to post something about this as well. I haven't been reading the news, and was browsing some data sites and was surprised to see Arizona's numbers down. I was also surprised that in every state I checked, the numbers were either flat or down (7 day moving average).
Please look at my comment below. CDC all cause mortality has been back to normal since early July. The virus rips through places like nursing homes and kills the old & sick who were close to death anyway. (Median length of time people live in nursing homes is ~6 months.) A little risky for the young & obese. But for the rest of us, not that fatal.
Do the dips coincide with when the white house took away CDC control of coronavirus data? Because if so that's something to consider when looking at the trends.
I've been thinking about this some more. If the dip were due to the change in data collecting, then it would just be a one-time step down, not a slow, gradual, consistent decline, right?
Absolutely agree that the numbers seem all of a sudden very low. It would be most telling to see number of deaths, compared to an average for same period of last 3 years. They can fudge number of cases or official Covid deaths. But when you compare to an average there is a a clear number of Unexplained deaths, which are mostly Covid-related.
CDC all-cause mortality has been back to normal since early July. The media is taking you guys for a ride to scare you. Every time NYT features an (obese) 25 year old who died, they do this because deaths among the young are rare and they want to shock you by using the persons age. Average age of patient for Covid deaths is ~80, and mostly people who were at deaths door anyway. (My father in AZ is almost 80 but healthy and normal weight without any conditions and it was like a cold for him.) This is why all cause mortality is back to normal.
First, whatever I say you won’t believe me. Second, examining the stats and trends that have been available for months and continue to come out doesn’t require a PhD in a highly quantitative field. Just basic logic and numeracy skills.
I’m OP: Yes you are correct. AZ also had its first day without any Covid deaths this week. FL and TX cases dropping. Hospitals never came close to the overcapacity the media kept screaming about in June & July. GA never turned into a disaster. Overall ICU census keeps dropping nationwide.
Yet the media does not tell you this because reassuring headlines don’t get clicks.
@Anonymous Interesting but I guess it makes sense in some way as we have learned SO MUCH about treatment since March and April. Still i do wonder given they basically had no lock down, no masks, etc. how did the hospitals not get overwhelmed and death rates soar?
I was meaning to post something about this as well. I haven't been reading the news, and was browsing some data sites and was surprised to see Arizona's numbers down. I was also surprised that in every state I checked, the numbers were either flat or down (7 day moving average).
Please look at my comment below. CDC all cause mortality has been back to normal since early July. The virus rips through places like nursing homes and kills the old & sick who were close to death anyway. (Median length of time people live in nursing homes is ~6 months.) A little risky for the young & obese. But for the rest of us, not that fatal.
@Anonymous Yes, I read your comment below. It does not speak to my question, which is about case transmission rates, not deaths.
@Anonymous I’m not clear, what is your question?
Do the dips coincide with when the white house took away CDC control of coronavirus data? Because if so that's something to consider when looking at the trends.
OR. thanks, that's interesting. It was odd to me that it was across the board in a way that seemed surprising.
These are numbers coming directly out of AZ.
I've been thinking about this some more. If the dip were due to the change in data collecting, then it would just be a one-time step down, not a slow, gradual, consistent decline, right?
Absolutely agree that the numbers seem all of a sudden very low. It would be most telling to see number of deaths, compared to an average for same period of last 3 years. They can fudge number of cases or official Covid deaths. But when you compare to an average there is a a clear number of Unexplained deaths, which are mostly Covid-related.
CDC all-cause mortality has been back to normal since early July. The media is taking you guys for a ride to scare you. Every time NYT features an (obese) 25 year old who died, they do this because deaths among the young are rare and they want to shock you by using the persons age. Average age of patient for Covid deaths is ~80, and mostly people who were at deaths door anyway. (My father in AZ is almost 80 but healthy and normal weight without any conditions and it was like a cold for him.) This is why all cause mortality is back to normal.
@Anonymous what are your qualifications
First, whatever I say you won’t believe me. Second, examining the stats and trends that have been available for months and continue to come out doesn’t require a PhD in a highly quantitative field. Just basic logic and numeracy skills.
Bumping this back up, as reduced case count seems to be a continuing trend, yet I don't see it being emphasized in the news.
I’m OP: Yes you are correct. AZ also had its first day without any Covid deaths this week. FL and TX cases dropping. Hospitals never came close to the overcapacity the media kept screaming about in June & July. GA never turned into a disaster. Overall ICU census keeps dropping nationwide.
Yet the media does not tell you this because reassuring headlines don’t get clicks.
@Anonymous Georgia's death rates are much higher, though.
@Anonymous Interesting but I guess it makes sense in some way as we have learned SO MUCH about treatment since March and April. Still i do wonder given they basically had no lock down, no masks, etc. how did the hospitals not get overwhelmed and death rates soar?